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Onchain Intelligence

Protocol-level analysis and forecasting models built on Dune Analytics.

Resolv Protocol — TVL Growth Analysis

I measure 52 weeks of TVL for USR, RLP, and RESOLV — backward from RESOLV TGE: June 10, 2025, weekly cadence.

USR TVL Growth — 52-Week Log Growth Rates

RLP TVL Growth — 52-Week Log Growth Rates

RESOLV TVL Growth — 52-Week Log Growth Rates

Definitions

r_w = TVL_w / TVL_{w-1} − 1

Simple weekly growth

g_w = ln(TVL_w) − ln(TVL_{w-1})

Log weekly growth

Untrimmed

Average of all weekly values

Trimmed

Average after dropping symmetric tail outliers (configurable %)

Forecast Method

Only Log Growth Rates (Trimmed / Untrimmed) are used for projections.

TVL​⁠​​{t+h} = TVL⁠​​{t}
× exp(h × μ_log)

Where μ_log is the mean weekly log growth from the 12-month window.

Why Log vs Normal

  • Additive over time — stable compounding across the projection window
  • Geometric-consistent: exp(avg(g_w)) − 1 reflects true compounded growth
  • More robust to volatility and outliers, especially with trimming applied